We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 15 May 12
POTENTIAL BOOM OF CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD PROVIDE FURTHER SUPPORT TO DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been moving sideways during the past week with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) losing 0.53% on th ...
Saturday, 12 May 12
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS UNLIKELY TO SEE A REBOUND ANYTIME SOON - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI softened this week and it was down by 1.64 pct closing at 1,138 points.
The cape index was up by 2.41 pct closing at 1,61 ...
Friday, 11 May 12
POLITICAL CHANGES COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY HALT IN SHIPPING INVESTMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The potential of changes of political leadership in many of the world’s leading economies could very well lead to significant shifts in the di ...
Thursday, 10 May 12
DRY BULK ERRATIC ON LACK OF DIRECTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept up its erratic behavior as it went down again during yesterday’s session, on a lack of direct guidance in terms o ...
Wednesday, 09 May 12
COAL INDIA SIGNS FSAS WITH 13 POWER UNITS SO FAR - PTI
Press Trust of India has reported that, coal India has so far entered into fuel supply pacts with 13 power units, including Reliance Power's Rosa P ...
|
|
|
Showing 4731 to 4735 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
