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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 18 May 12
EXPORT TAX WILL ERODE PROFITS, INDONESIAN COAL EXEC COMPLAINS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, A 20 percent export duty the government has imposed on 14 mineral ore products will not only take a toll on mining ...
Friday, 18 May 12
KOREA EAST WEST POWER LOOKING FOR TOTAL 2.6 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL AT FIXED PRICE FOR 5 YEARS
COALspot.com - Korea East West Power Co., Ltd is inviting bids to supply of 520,000 Metric Tons (per annum) of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg coal of N ...
Friday, 18 May 12
NICKEL ORE CARGOES ARE NOT SEEN IN MARKET ANYMORE DUE TO ON-GOING INDONESIAN BAN - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The market remained variable.
Fronthaul voyages both from Baltic and Black Sea paid over USD 18k/day. From USG to Cont tonnage would get ...
Thursday, 17 May 12
COAL MINERS OPPOSE EXPORT TAX, SUGGEST OUTPUT QUOTA - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, coal miners have suggested that the government apply a production quota instead of implementing an export tax in ord ...
Thursday, 17 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways during this week, with the mixed performance across all segments. Yesterday, the industry’s be ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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