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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 04 April 12
CHURCHILL MINING TO ACCELERATE INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION AGAINST INDONESIA
Churchill Mining plc (AIM: CHL), advises that notations on the Indonesian Supreme Court's register of cases shows the Supreme Court has rejected th ...
Monday, 02 April 12
BANGLADESH EYEING INDONESIA FOR COAL
COALspot.com - The high level executives of Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) of Bangladesh is visiting Ind ...
Monday, 02 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first quarter of the New Year ended with the BDI standing 42% above from the 26 years’ bottom low of 662 points on February 1st, and a pos ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
THE BDI CONTINUED TO MOVE UPWARD - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to move upward and rose by 2.86 pct closing at 934 points.
The cape index was up by 3.14 pct closing at 1,412 po ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
SRI LANKA IMPORTS 152,555 MT OF INDONESIAN COAL IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 27.126* million tons of coal in February 2012, compared to 28.21* million to ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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