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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 30 March 12
RECOND NUMBERS SURROUNDING THE SUPRAMAX DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Last year proved to be both a record year in the number of deliveries of dry bulkers between 40,000dwt and 64,000dwt, as well as a record year in th ...
Thursday, 29 March 12
DRY BULK EDGED FURTHER UP, ON HEALTHY DEMAND FOR MOST SHIP TYPES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With capesize vessels finally reappearing in demand, the dry bulk market had an easier task of rising yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) reach ...
Thursday, 29 March 12
ADARO FY11 NET INCOME JUMPS 124% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) today announced a 124% jump in net income to US$552 million last year or US$0.017 a share. ...
Wednesday, 28 March 12
CUESTA HAS RECEIVED APPLICATIONS AND FIRM BIDS IN EXCESS OF $9 MILLION FOR THE COMPANYS IPO
COALspot.com - The Directors of Cuesta Coal Limited (ASX:CQC) have announced that today it has received applications and firm bids in excess of $9 m ...
Wednesday, 28 March 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY TO COMMENCE JORC DRILLING AT ADK PROJECT
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal explorer and producer, Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG), have today announced that the company is about to commence a drillin ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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