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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 27 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEP RISING FOLLOWING THE SAME TREND OF LAST WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum this week, on the same reasons of those last week. That is, the smaller ship types are still on the ris ...
Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the ...
Monday, 26 March 12
GOLDEN MINES FY11 REVENUE JUMPS 209% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), that is controlled by Sinar Mas Group, recorded a 209% jump in revenue ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
AUSTRALIA'S MINERAL TAX : BENCHMARK FOR OTHER COUNTRIES - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Natural resources rich counties like Australia , Indonesia , South Africa , Brazil etc are going through a spectacular resources boom ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
THE AVERAGE CHARTER RATES WAS AT CAPESIZE $ 4,546 PER DAY VS SUPRAMAX / $ 10,819 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI crossed 900 points this week closing at 908 points up by 3.89 pct. All other sectors were up except for cape index whic ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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