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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 April 12
INDONESIA TO INTRODUCE EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL ORES BY 6 MAY 2012
The Indonesian government is scheduled to issue regulation on export duty for minerals before May 6, 2012.
According to Bisnis Indonesia, as quot ...
Sunday, 15 April 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES FOR SUPRAMAX IN SE ASIA SAW SOME SOFTENING OF CHARTER RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market seem to be holding and except for Supramax and handy size index all other index was up with BDI up by 4.74 pct closing at ...
Friday, 13 April 12
MINERS OPPOSE GOVTS EXPORT TAX PLAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian mining companies have strongly protested the government’s plan to impose a 25 percent export tax on ...
Friday, 13 April 12
S&P CAUTIONS AGAINST NEW INDONESIAN MINING REGULATIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Investors may have expressed concerns about looming new mining regulations, but ratings agency Standard & Poor& ...
Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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