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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 27 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEP RISING FOLLOWING THE SAME TREND OF LAST WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum this week, on the same reasons of those last week. That is, the smaller ship types are still on the ris ...
Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the ...
Monday, 26 March 12
GOLDEN MINES FY11 REVENUE JUMPS 209% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), that is controlled by Sinar Mas Group, recorded a 209% jump in revenue ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
AUSTRALIA'S MINERAL TAX : BENCHMARK FOR OTHER COUNTRIES - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Natural resources rich counties like Australia , Indonesia , South Africa , Brazil etc are going through a spectacular resources boom ...
Saturday, 24 March 12
THE AVERAGE CHARTER RATES WAS AT CAPESIZE $ 4,546 PER DAY VS SUPRAMAX / $ 10,819 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI crossed 900 points this week closing at 908 points up by 3.89 pct. All other sectors were up except for cape index whic ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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