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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 30 March 12
RECOND NUMBERS SURROUNDING THE SUPRAMAX DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Last year proved to be both a record year in the number of deliveries of dry bulkers between 40,000dwt and 64,000dwt, as well as a record year in th ...
Thursday, 29 March 12
DRY BULK EDGED FURTHER UP, ON HEALTHY DEMAND FOR MOST SHIP TYPES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With capesize vessels finally reappearing in demand, the dry bulk market had an easier task of rising yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) reach ...
Thursday, 29 March 12
ADARO FY11 NET INCOME JUMPS 124% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) today announced a 124% jump in net income to US$552 million last year or US$0.017 a share. ...
Wednesday, 28 March 12
CUESTA HAS RECEIVED APPLICATIONS AND FIRM BIDS IN EXCESS OF $9 MILLION FOR THE COMPANYS IPO
COALspot.com - The Directors of Cuesta Coal Limited (ASX:CQC) have announced that today it has received applications and firm bids in excess of $9 m ...
Wednesday, 28 March 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY TO COMMENCE JORC DRILLING AT ADK PROJECT
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal explorer and producer, Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG), have today announced that the company is about to commence a drillin ...
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Showing 4786 to 4790 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
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