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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 04 April 12
CHURCHILL MINING TO ACCELERATE INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION AGAINST INDONESIA
Churchill Mining plc (AIM: CHL), advises that notations on the Indonesian Supreme Court's register of cases shows the Supreme Court has rejected th ...
Monday, 02 April 12
BANGLADESH EYEING INDONESIA FOR COAL
COALspot.com - The high level executives of Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) of Bangladesh is visiting Ind ...
Monday, 02 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first quarter of the New Year ended with the BDI standing 42% above from the 26 years’ bottom low of 662 points on February 1st, and a pos ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
THE BDI CONTINUED TO MOVE UPWARD - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to move upward and rose by 2.86 pct closing at 934 points.
The cape index was up by 3.14 pct closing at 1,412 po ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
SRI LANKA IMPORTS 152,555 MT OF INDONESIAN COAL IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 27.126* million tons of coal in February 2012, compared to 28.21* million to ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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