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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
COAL EXPORT TAX: MATTER OF CONCERN FOR INDIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Since the issuance of Indonesian Mining law in 2009, miners have increased their activities in exploring , ex ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
AKR COAL FIRST EXPORT SHIPMENT OF COAL SEABORNE
PT Anugrah Karya Raya (AKR Coal) subsidiary of PT AKR Corporindo Tbk., Indonesia’s leading integrated supply chain solutions provider and larg ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STALLS AS TREND IS REVERSED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has halted its month-long rally, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating yesterday for a second consecutive session. Industry ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
OIL MAY JUMP TO $150PB IF IRAN ATTACKED: EXPERT - KUNA / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Prices of oil will not drop below level of $100 per barrel and may jump to $150 pb in the coming two months, according to the prominent Kuwaiti expe ...
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Showing 4776 to 4780 news of total 6871 |
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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