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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 15 January 13
GRANT SMITH APPOINTED GROUP MANAGING DIRECTOR OF BRAEMAR ADJUSTING
The Board of Braemar Adjusting is delighted to announce the appointment of Grant Smith as Group Managing Director of the company with immediate effe ...
Tuesday, 15 January 13
2ND MYANMAR MINING SUMMIT & OFFICIAL HOST MINISTRY OF MINES TO WELCOME OVER 200 DELEGATES NEXT WEEK
Press Release: The Ministry of Mines is hosting the 2nd Myanmar Mining Summit in Yangon on 21-24 January to unravel the local mining climate, prospe ...
Monday, 14 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.32 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 14 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,123,312 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 14 January 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 14 January 13
THE COAL MONGOLIA - 2013 OFFICIALLY IN COOPERATION WITH TOP MINING COMPANIES
Press Release: Mongolian first mining portal site Mining.mn has already started its preparation of the International Conference “COAL MONGOLIA ...
Monday, 14 January 13
NTPC INVITES BIDS FOR 500K MT OF IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com - NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest Indian state-owned electric utilities company called for a ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
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