We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 13 January 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET: FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with all the indices up with maximum gain in the Panamax segment. The BDI was up by 7.65 pct clo ...
Saturday, 12 January 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEAK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.32 percent WoW but CFR South China coal ship ...
Saturday, 12 January 13
HIGHER COAL PRICES: SEASONAL EFFECT
COALspot.com : Bahana Securities, one of the leading securities in Indonesia, said in its latest coal outlook that, on US and China&rsquo ...
Friday, 11 January 13
HBA HAS JUMPED BY US$ 5.80 PMT IN JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal higher than December price. The monthly coal reference price f ...
Thursday, 10 January 13
PANAMAX : SOME GLIMMERS OF HOPE MID WEEK - FEARNLEYS
According to Fearnley’s weekly report, the Atlantic handy market is stable with rates around USD 11k for Cont-Feast and USD 17k bss USG/Feast. ...
|
|
|
Showing 4426 to 4430 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
