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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 24 January 13
INDO - INDIA NOW AT APS $ 8K + BB USD 90000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains stable as supply of tonnage is still in excess of demand. USG- Far east fixed at $18k and CONT-FEAST at $ 11k. Pa ...
Thursday, 24 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been on the downside during the past couple of days, mainly as a result of the tropical storm which forced ports to close do ...
Tuesday, 22 January 13
PORT OF ANTWERP HANDLES 7.0 PERCENT MORE COAL IN 2012 Y-Y
COALspot.com - The port of Antwerp handled 184,134,516 tonnes of freight last year.
This represents a drop of 1.6% compared with 2011, when the v ...
Monday, 21 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 10.21 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 21 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,804,152 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 21 January 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 21 January 13
PANAMAX DRY BULK CARRIERS AND AFRAMAX TANKERS PROVED TO BE THE "WEAPON OF CHOICE" FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship financing getting ever so difficult to procure during the past year or so, ship owners had to get creative in order to persuade banks and ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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