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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 16 November 11
A STRONG WEEK FOR THE CAPES - BRS
A sharp bounce by the Cape market pushed the BDI up by 3% last week. This was despite a softening in the other indices with the Panamax, Supramax an ...
Monday, 14 November 11
BORL SEEKS 660K MT OF LOW SULPHUR COAL
COALspot.com - BORL India has issued a tender for around 660,000 MT of 4500 - 5500 kcal/kg sub-bituminous Coal.
Bharat Oman Refineries Ltd ...
Sunday, 13 November 11
BUNKER PRICES REMAINED FIRM
COALspot.com - The market seemed to recover this week with the BDI and Cape Index up.
The BDI was up by only about 2.86 pct closing at 1835 point ...
Saturday, 12 November 11
COALINDO ENERGY LAUNCHED INDEX FOR 3400 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - PT Coalindo Energy, in cooperation with Argus Media Limited, launched the coal index for low-rank coal with a calorific value of 3,40 ...
Saturday, 12 November 11
BBJ WILL RELEASE A COAL CONTRACT
Jakarta Futures Exchange will soon release a coal futures contracts during the quarter 1 / 2012.
Director of the Jakarta Futures Exchange (BBJ) S ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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