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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 December 11
HAREDA KRIDA GETS CONTRACT FROM BAYAN - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN), through its subsidiary dubbed PT Gunungbayan Pratamacoal (GPB), has signed ...
Thursday, 08 December 11
CAPESIZES LIFT DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize vessels yesterday helped lift the dry bulk market which had been falling since the start of the week on lower cargo demand. As a result the ...
Wednesday, 07 December 11
ABM INVESTAMA EYES RP6.3 TRIO REVENUE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, an energy integrated company PT ABM Investama Tbk is eyeing a 1.5 folds increase in revenue this year from Rp4. ...
Tuesday, 06 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS RALLY, STARTS WEEK WITH FALL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After a series of increases which saw the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing close to 1,900 points and rates o ...
Monday, 05 December 11
THE DECEMBER HBA FELL 11% FROM ITS PEAK AT US$127.05 PER TON IN FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has sets the December 2011 coal reference price at US$ 112.67 per ton US$ 3.98 ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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