We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 19 January 12
SOUTHGOBI RESOURCES SELLS MORE THAN FOUR MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2011, 58% MORE THAN 2010
COALspot.com - SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) has successfully complets year 2011 on guidance in terms of coal sales and production.
...
Thursday, 19 January 12
14TH VOGP MEETING IN HO CHI MINH CITY HANDS OUT LATEST UPDATES AND DEVELOPMENTS IN VIETNAM'S ENERGY INDUSTRY
Press Release: At upcoming 14th Vietnam Oil Gas Power on 27-28 Feb in Ho Chi Minh City the industry’s most influential names including Petrovi ...
Thursday, 19 January 12
DELTA DUNIA SEALS US$820 MIO CONTRACT INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ( ...
Wednesday, 18 January 12
WARM WINTER ACROSS EUROPE HAS IMPACTED NEGATIVELY COAL DEMAND - BRS
With the Chinese New Year just a week away, all markets are slowing down. The drop in freight rates for all sizes has been significant over the past ...
Wednesday, 18 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET'S DRAMA CONTINUES IN START OF NEW WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A flurry of newbuilding deliveries, coupled with a slow start to the new year, a typical trend for the dry bulk market, has led the industry's benc ...
|
|
|
Showing 4881 to 4885 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
