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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 24 January 12
BUKIT ASAM FY11 NET PROFIT SURGES 50% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) estimated to book Rp3 trillion (approximately US$ 335,570,469) net prof ...
Sunday, 22 January 12
FREIGHT MARKET DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2008
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to soften almost reaching 2008 levels breaking the 1,000 point mark", said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Sh ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
ASIAS PREMIER COMPREHENSIVE OPEN CUT MINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULED FOR FEBRUARY 2012
As the only such conference in the region for miners and service providers, IBC Asia’s Open Cut Mine Planning & Operational Excellence con ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
COAL MARKETS CELEBRATES A DECADE OF BRINGING BUYERS & SELLERS TOGETHER
In 2012, IBC Asia’s premier Coal Markets conference series – Asia’s only globally focused coal import, export and supply chain eve ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
SAMIN TAN COMPLETES BUMI PLC TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesian coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN), that is controlled by stellar businessm ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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