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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 16 January 12
BUMA MINED 2.7 MILLION TONS COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - BUMA has mined 2.7 million tons (-14.1% YoY) coal last month and removed 25.8 million bcm (-5.6% YoY) overburden, according to compan ...
Sunday, 15 January 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BLEED - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to bleed with BDI touching almost 1000 points , almost reaching the collapse of 2008 levels," said C ...
Saturday, 14 January 12
GOLDEN MINES TO SUPPLY 4 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner under Sinarmas Group PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), a subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DS ...
Friday, 13 January 12
DIFFICULT START OF 2012 FOR DRY BULK MARKET SEEN HARD TO CHANGE IN THE COURSE OF THE YEAR, UNLESS DEMOLITION PICKS UP
The dry bulk market has been on a freefall this week after a rocky start to the new year. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry's benc ...
Thursday, 12 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET CRASHING AT START OF THE YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept being on freefall mode yesterday, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) losing a massive 5.17% on ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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