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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 27 January 12
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY NEEDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS YEAR AS WELL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of vessels in most shipping sectors is so intense that it’s become clear to ship owners that unless they scrap as many of their ...
Thursday, 26 January 12
ABM INVESTAMA SEALS US$100 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Reswara Minergi Hartama, a subsidary of PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMM), has sealed a 2 million tons of coal export co ...
Thursday, 26 January 12
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNFALL KNOWS NO LIMITS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s demise seems to have no visible end, as China’s Lunar Year Holidays continue this week, thus leaving demand with n ...
Wednesday, 25 January 12
CLEAN AND CLEAR MINING PERMITS TO BE COMPLETED END OF 2012 - BISNIS.COM
Bisnis.com reported that, the government plans to announce 700 mining permits with "clean and clear" status without overlapping on other p ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
ANOTHER SEVERE DROP IN THE CAPESIZE - BRS
The lunar year celebrations and the high number of new building deliveries (more than 35 Capes so far in January as owners push 2011 deliveries into ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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