We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 12 October 11
INDONESIAS COAL RUSH - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Last winter, the Chinese government mobilized thousands of soldiers and reservists of the People’s Liberation Army to the port ...
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE - A SURPRISE JUMP IN RATES - BRS
There was a surge across all sizes last week, resulting in the BDI gaining 101 points to end the week at 2,000 points (+5.3%). The BCI reached 3,218 ...
Tuesday, 11 October 11
GLENCORE, SUITOR FOR BUMI PLC? - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the largest commodities trader in the world, Glencore International Plc, is considering an opportunity to acquire a m ...
Tuesday, 11 October 11
RENUKA COALINDO BUYS JAMBI COAL
PT Renuka Coalindo Tbk, formerly PT Allbond Makmur Usaha Tbk plans to acquire PT Jambi Prima Coal holder of mining concession in Pauh, Sa ...
Monday, 10 October 11
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TO BE THE NEW PIRACY HOTSPOT FOR THIS YEAR SAYS MARITIME SECURITY EXPERT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Mozambique Channel, as well as the entrance to the Persian Gulf, are expected to become some of the new pirate hotspots for piracy, says Richard ...
|
|
|
Showing 5036 to 5040 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
