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Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 19 October 11
ADARO ACQUIRES BUKIT ENIM ENERGI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner PT Adaro Energy Tbk, via its subsidiary dubbed PT Alam Tri Abadi, today revealed a 46% stake takeover of a ...
Tuesday, 18 October 11
INDONESIAN PRESIDENT APPOINTS JERO WACIK AS NEW MINISTER OF ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES
COALspot.com - Jero Wacik has been appointed as minister of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia replacing Darwin Saleh and Prof. Widjajono Par ...
Tuesday, 18 October 11
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS PRODUCED 3.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur, wholly owned subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA), Delta Dunia Makmur has removed 1.4 million bcm ...
Monday, 17 October 11
KOWEPO TO BUY 260,000 MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com - KOWEPO has issued a spot tender for 260,000MT of minimum 5,600kcal/kg NAR Bituminous Coal.
The tender document also mentioned tha ...
Monday, 17 October 11
CAPESIZE SHIPPING COSTS CLIMB TO 10-MONTH HIGH ON ORE IMPORTS
The cost to hire capesize vessels climbed to a 10-month high as rising imports of iron ore to China boosted demand for the ships.Monthly iron-ore sh ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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