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Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 19 October 11
ADARO ACQUIRES BUKIT ENIM ENERGI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner PT Adaro Energy Tbk, via its subsidiary dubbed PT Alam Tri Abadi, today revealed a 46% stake takeover of a ...
Tuesday, 18 October 11
INDONESIAN PRESIDENT APPOINTS JERO WACIK AS NEW MINISTER OF ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES
COALspot.com - Jero Wacik has been appointed as minister of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia replacing Darwin Saleh and Prof. Widjajono Par ...
Tuesday, 18 October 11
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS PRODUCED 3.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur, wholly owned subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA), Delta Dunia Makmur has removed 1.4 million bcm ...
Monday, 17 October 11
KOWEPO TO BUY 260,000 MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com - KOWEPO has issued a spot tender for 260,000MT of minimum 5,600kcal/kg NAR Bituminous Coal.
The tender document also mentioned tha ...
Monday, 17 October 11
CAPESIZE SHIPPING COSTS CLIMB TO 10-MONTH HIGH ON ORE IMPORTS
The cost to hire capesize vessels climbed to a 10-month high as rising imports of iron ore to China boosted demand for the ships.Monthly iron-ore sh ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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