We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 09 October 11
FREIGHT MARKET ENDED WITH A POSITIVE DIRECTION - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market ended with a positive note with all the segments up except for handy size. The biggest gainer was Panamax index up by 11 p ...
Saturday, 08 October 11
INDONESIAN MINER PLANS $167M IPO TO FUEL SUMATRA COAL BOOM - JG
The Jakarta Globe reported that, coal miner Atlas Resources aims to raise as much as Rp 1.5 trillion ($167 million) in an initial public offering to ...
Friday, 07 October 11
MINING REGULATIONS , OBSTACLES AND GROWTH : INDIA VS INDONESIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The Govt of India has passed long pending Mines & Minerals (Regulation and Development) Bill, 2011, which seeks to replace ...
Friday, 07 October 11
$100M FOR EXPANSION INTO KALIMANTAN MINING: AKR
The Jakarta Globe, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, AKR Corporindo, a fuel and chemical distributor, has set aside ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
REALM SECURES 51% OF KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN
•Realm secures 51% of PT Katingan Ria Thermal Coal Project in Central Kalimantan
•Realm takes ownership of Kalres Limited
•Acquisit ...
|
|
|
Showing 5041 to 5045 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
