We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation in ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will modera ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
MINISTRY STICKING TO RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN DESPITE INDUSTRY FEARS - JG
The Jakarta Globe, the one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, reported that, the details of a controversial new regulation that would b ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS BECAME TIGHTER FOR PANAMAX LAST WEEK - BRS
A slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points.
The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding - ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
WITH CHINA ON HOLIDAY, DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS STAGNANT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has remained to healthy levels after last month’s rally, but with China going on holiday this week, things are looking sta ...
|
|
|
Showing 5046 to 5050 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
|
| |
| |
|
