We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 24 October 11
CAPESIZE RENTAL RATES RISE FOR THIRD DAY AS MORE SHIPS HIRED - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Rates to hire capesize vessels advanced for a third day on signs of increased demand to transport iron ore, used to make steel.Daily rates for the s ...
Sunday, 23 October 11
CHINA LOOKING TO RESELL INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES - BARCLAYS
Commodity Online reported that, Anecdotal evidence has suggested that China is even looking to resell Indonesian cargoes back into the seaborne coal ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
THE SHORT-PERIOD RATES FOR PANAMAX REMAINED FIRM - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - "The market seemed to slow down a bit this week, and all sectors were down by about One to five percent", said Capt. Reddy, ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
WILL THE PROPOSED 26 PERCENT PROFIT SHARING CLAUSE IN THE MINING BILL SPEED UP THE PRODUCTION OR SCARE AWAY INVESTORS? - DIPESH DIPU
A draft law has been approved by a ministerial panel headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee of India which, if passed by the Cabinet, will make ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
INDONESIA'S GOLDEN ENERGY SLASHES ITS IPO PRICE - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Golden Energy Mines, a coal mining company affiliated with Sinar Mas Group, lowered its target in an initial public ...
|
|
|
Showing 5016 to 5020 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
|
| |
| |
|
