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Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZE - TUBARAO /QINGDAO BEING FIXED AT STRONG US$ 29.75 PMT
Handy
The Atlantic market is quite steady, and market seems to be around the same levels as last week. Fewer fixtures reported though. ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
BRACKEN INTERNATIONAL MINING LISTS ON FRANKFURT STOCK EXCHANGE
Press Release - Bracken International Mining (Code:1BM) listed on the Deutsche Börse’s Frankfurt Stock Exchange today at €1.00 with ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZES, SUPRAMAXES LEAD GAINS FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Struggling to find additional support, but still managing to post gains, the dry bulk market has stabilized itself on higher levels again yesterday, ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzi ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET WAS VERY FIRM LAST WEEK - BRS
With all sectors contributing positively, the BDI ended the week at 2,173 points (+8.6%), its highest level so far in 2011. The BCI stood at 3,587 ( ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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