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Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZE - TUBARAO /QINGDAO BEING FIXED AT STRONG US$ 29.75 PMT
Handy
The Atlantic market is quite steady, and market seems to be around the same levels as last week. Fewer fixtures reported though. ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
BRACKEN INTERNATIONAL MINING LISTS ON FRANKFURT STOCK EXCHANGE
Press Release - Bracken International Mining (Code:1BM) listed on the Deutsche Börse’s Frankfurt Stock Exchange today at €1.00 with ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZES, SUPRAMAXES LEAD GAINS FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Struggling to find additional support, but still managing to post gains, the dry bulk market has stabilized itself on higher levels again yesterday, ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzi ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET WAS VERY FIRM LAST WEEK - BRS
With all sectors contributing positively, the BDI ended the week at 2,173 points (+8.6%), its highest level so far in 2011. The BCI stood at 3,587 ( ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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