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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 25 August 11
OPG EXPECTS COAL PRICES TO REMAIN FIRM IN THE SHORT TERM
COALspot.com - Revenue of OPG, the developer and operator of Group Captive power plants in India up 188% to £33.15m and Income from continuing ...
Thursday, 25 August 11
PAITON POWER LOOKING FOR 3.96 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - PT Pembangkit Jawa Bali (PJB) is looking for 3.96 million tons coal with calorific value 4,800 kcal/kg on as received basis. Accordin ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
ICMA CALLS GOVERNMENT TO REVIEW EXPORT BAN REGULATION
COALspot.com - Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) Bob Kamandanu asks the government to review the regulation that being draft ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
ADARO ENERGY ACQUIRES 75% STAKE OF PT MUSTIKA INDAH PERMAI FOR US$ 222.5 MILLION
COALspot.com - PT Alam Tri Abadi, a wholly owned subsidiary of PT Adaro Energy Tbk, signed a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75% stake of PT M ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
COAL DEMAND IS REMAINED STRONG IN SPITE OF CURRENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY - BUMI
COALspot.com - Indonesia's largest coal producer, PT Bumi Resources, Tbk (BUMI)'s sales revenue has increased to US$1.79 billion (compared with US ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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