We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 03 September 11
TNPL TO BUY 240K MT OF NON-COKING COAL
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited (TNPL), is seeking to procure 240,000 MT +/- 5 percent of non-coking imported coal with ...
Friday, 02 September 11
CAPESIZE DEMAND LIFTS DRY BULK MARKET ONCE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what proves to be the best week of the year for Capesize owners, strong demand has helped propel the dry bulk market to new highs yesterday. The ...
Thursday, 01 September 11
EWP TO BUY 195KT OF VIETNAM COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) has issued an International open bidding for 490kt of sub bituminous coal, according to a bid invitation ...
Thursday, 01 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET TAKES GREAT LEAP FORWARD - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU
In what turned out to be a rather hopeful ending of the month, the last day of August saw the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry ...
Tuesday, 30 August 11
FAUJI CEMENT CONSUMED MORE THAN 1 MILLION TONS OF LOCAL COAL
Cooper Minerals Inc.based in Vancouver, BC, Canada, is a junior exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of miner ...
|
|
|
Showing 5106 to 5110 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
