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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 28 August 11
FREIGHT MARKET COULD BE FIRM NEXT MONTH - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend first half of the week . However, towards the end of the week lost momentum and the BDI ...
Saturday, 27 August 11
JAPANESE BULK CARRIER SETS RECORD ON NORTHERN SEA ROUTE - BARENTS OBSERVER
The Northern Sea Route will see its third record in less than a month when the largest ever bulk carrier to take the route leaves Murmansk next week ...
Saturday, 27 August 11
RBCT-INDIA ROUNDS FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12K - FEARNBULK
Handy
Stable but very positional markets across all segments in the Atlantic: the gap between owners and charterers rate ideas is building up as o ...
Friday, 26 August 11
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG ACQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL 40% SHARES IN BARA PRIMA AGUNG
COALspot.com - PT Tuah Turangga Agung, a subsidiary of PT United Tractors Tbk, has signed an acquisition agreement to acquire 40% of PT Bara Prima A ...
Friday, 26 August 11
INTRACO EYES US$200 MIO COAL TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Heavy equipment distributor PT Intraco Penta Tbk, that was founded by Halex Halim, is scouting a coal acquisition with the valuation above US$200 mi ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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