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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 23 August 11
PENRHYN COAL USING EVERGREEN ENERGYS COAL UPGRADING PROCESS
Evergreen Energy Inc has announced the successful testing results of the initial batches of Penrhyn coal using Evergreen Energy’s coal upgradi ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
A SHARP INCREASE IN THE BDI - BRS
A sharp increase in the BDI this week, driven by the rise in Capesize rates. Overall the BDI was up 13.5% to 1,462 points on the back of a 20% surge ...
Monday, 22 August 11
INDONESIA TO BAN BELOW 5700 KCAL/KG COAL FOR EXPORT
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia is in the process of drafting a regulation which is requiring mine owners ...
Monday, 22 August 11
JATENERGY AGREED TO FORM JV WITH AN INDONESIAN COAL MINING COMPANY
COALspot.com - Australian’s listed company, Jatenergy Limited has entered conditional agreement to form joint venture with Indonesia’s c ...
Monday, 22 August 11
NTPC TO IMPORT 16 MILLION TON OF COAL TO BRIDGE THE GAP
COALspot.com - NTPC to import 16 million tons of imported coal, which is equivalent to 23-24 million tons of Indian coal to bridge the gap.
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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