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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 17 September 11
GVK ACQUIRES HANCOCK COAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE FOR US$ 1.26 BILLION
COALspot.com - GVK group, India’s leading infrastructure developer,confirmed arrangements for the acquisition of a strategic part of large, hi ...
Saturday, 17 September 11
INDIA'S GVK ACQUIRES HANCOCK COAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN AUSTRALIA
COALspot.com - GVK group, India’s leading infrastructure developer, today confirmed arrangements for the acquisition of a strategic part of la ...
Friday, 16 September 11
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REMOVED 30.9 MILLION BCM OVERBURDEN IN AUGUST 2011
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk has removed 30.9 million bcm (+13.2% YoY) overburden in August 2011 while coal production was at 2.9 ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
RUSSIAN COAL EXPORTS UP 10.9% IN JAN-AUG TO 71.50 MILLION TONS - PORT NEWS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Port News reported that, Coal exports from Russia in January-August 2011 grew by 10.9% compared with the same period last year, to 71.50 million ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
INDIAN GOVT PLANS TO DEVELOP 9 NEW MAJOR PORTS BY 2016 - INVEST MONEY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The government has announced to make a investment of more than Rs 22,000 crore (approximately US$ 4,623,791,331) to develop nine new major ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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