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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 03 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET OFFICIALLY IN THE RED ON LOWER CARGO DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept falling yesterday, on lower iron ore demand, which has caused the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) to ...
Wednesday, 02 November 11
MMTC TO BUY 3.73 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 2011- 2013
COALspot.com - India’s state-owned coal and mineral trader MMTC looking for 3.73 million tons of power plant coal for the period 2011 - 2012/ ...
Wednesday, 02 November 11
PANAMAX MARKET BECAME QUIETER AFTER THE RECENT RECOVERY - BRS
There were substantial losses across the board this week: the BDI lost 6.3% to end at 2,018 and the BCI 8.2% to end 3,274. In the smaller sizes the ...
Tuesday, 01 November 11
BORNEO LUMBUNG BUYS 23.8% INTEREST IN BUMI
COALspot.com - PT. Borneo Lumbung Energi (BORN), an Indonesian coking coal producer announces that it has signed a sale and purchase agreement, cond ...
Tuesday, 01 November 11
BAKRIE FORMS STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH BORNEO - REDUCING DEBT BY USD 1 BILLION
Press Release - Enhancing the standing of “Indonesia Inc.” at the London Stock Exchange PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (“BNBR” ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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