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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 10 September 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend during last week with BDI crossing 1,800 points and closing at 1,838 points up by 5.63 ...
Friday, 09 September 11
SUPRA BARA SECURES $20 MILLION LOAN - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, Coal miner PT Supra Bara Energi says it has secured a US$20 million loan facility from BNP Paribas to buy heavy equi ...
Friday, 09 September 11
CAPESIZE CAN SECURE USD 17-18K SHORT PERIOD - FEARNBULK
Handy
The US Gulf has remained relatively steady, slightly more activity in the South Atlantic with owners aiming for low to mid USD 20k´s f ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
UKRAINES COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 8% - IFANDP
Industrial fuels & power reported that, Ukraine will increase its coal output by about 8% this year compared to last year, said the country&rsqu ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY COMES TO AN END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was widely expected by analysts and shipbrokers alike, the latest rally of the dry bulk market came to a halt yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Inde ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
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