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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 September 11
GOVT SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT $116.26 PER TON
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has set the September 2011 coal reference price at US$ 116.26 per ton slightly ...
Tuesday, 13 September 11
CAPITAL COSTS OF INDIAN COAL MINING PROJECT - AN ANALYST VIEW
By Mr Dipesh Dipu, Director - Consulting (Mining), Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Private Limited
The coal mining sector that has been opened par ...
Tuesday, 13 September 11
INDONESIAS COAL SECTOR EYES 2012 BOOM - JG
The Jakarta Globe, Indonesian English language News paper reported that, Coal production is set to surge next year as coal miners bolster their busi ...
Tuesday, 13 September 11
DRY BULK RALLY MAINTAINS MOMENTUM AT START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum at the start of the week, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 2.07% ...
Monday, 12 September 11
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS ALLOCATED MORE COAL FOR 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian government has increased the domestic market obligation allocation to 82.07 million tons of coal for 2012, which is 4 perc ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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