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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 September 11
TRADA MARITIME BUYS GUNUNG BARA UTAMA
Insider Stories reported that, PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) has purchased convertible bonds issued by PT Awesome Coal from Zakia Limited. The memora ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
PETROSEA ADDS US$730 MIO CONTRACT
Coal mining contractor PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO), a majority owned subsidiary of energy integrated company PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY), has secured a U ...
Wednesday, 07 September 11
ANOTHER EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG WEEK FOR THE CAPESIZE MARKET - BRS
The very strong rise in Cape rates pushed through an overall improvement in the BDI this week, although relatively little benefit from the Capes has ...
Wednesday, 07 September 11
INDIA HIT BY INDONESIAS COAL PRICE - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive, an Indonesian online news portal reported that, The Indian government has complained about the price increase of Indonesian coal, ...
Wednesday, 07 September 11
SAMPUR POWER AGREEMENT SIGNED - DAILY NEWS
Daily News, Sri Lank's national news paper reported that, the agreement for the setting up of a 500 MW coal-fired power plant at Sampur, Trincomale ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
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