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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 15 September 11
INDIAN GOVT PLANS TO DEVELOP 9 NEW MAJOR PORTS BY 2016 - INVEST MONEY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The government has announced to make a investment of more than Rs 22,000 crore (approximately US$ 4,623,791,331) to develop nine new major ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
BOTSWANA COAL AND ENERGY CONFERENCE 2011
Press Release - Botswana Coal and Energy Conference 2011 | 29-30 November 2011 | Gaborone. Botswana represents Africa’s exciting new coal and ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGING FURTHER UP THE SCALE, CLOSING IN ON 2,000 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was up once again yesterday, reaching 1,927 points, or 1.375 higher on the day. Thus, it has kept its rising trend established d ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
INDO STRAITS BAGS 2.4 MILLION TON COAL TRANSPORTATION CONTRACT FROM ARUTMIN
COALspot.com - PT Indo Straits Tbk (PTIS) bagged a contract to tranship about 2.40 million tons of coal over an initial period of 6 months fro ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
DUTA PERTIWI DISCOVERS COAL RESERVE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Tbk (DPNS) yesterday steeply jumped 24.56% to Rp710 a share after the company discove ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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