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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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