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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
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