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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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