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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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