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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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