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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
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Showing 286 to 290 news of total 6871 |
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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