We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
|
|
|
Showing 281 to 285 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
|
| |
| |
|
