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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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