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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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