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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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