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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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