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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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