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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Thursday, 07 January 10
INDONESIAS COAL OUTPUT MAY RISE TO 309 MILLION TONS IN 2014 - BLOOMBERG
Indonesia’s coal production may rise to 309 million tons by 2014 from an estimated 250 million tons this year, Bambang Setiawan, director-gene ...
Wednesday, 06 January 10
RICHARDS BAY SAYS 46% OF COAL EXPORTS WENT TO EUROPE
Richards Bay Coal Terminal, through which almost all of South Africa’s coal exports are routed, said 46 percent of the coal it exported in 200 ...
Wednesday, 06 January 10
CHINA-AUSTRALIA INVESTMENT TIES SEEN IMPROVING IN 2010
Australia and China showed a united front in a bid to improve investment ties as they signed a $3-billion coal deal on Wednesday, following a rocky ...
Wednesday, 06 January 10
INVESTMENT IN MINING TO TOP $2.5B IN 2010
The government plans to invest US$2.5 billion in the mining sector, an official said Tuesday.
Bambang Setiawan, the director general of mineral r ...
Wednesday, 06 January 10
SAS 2009 COAL EXPORTS THROUGH RBCT FLAT AT 61MT
Exports through South Africa’s Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) remained flat in 2009, as the terminal faced “critical business challen ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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