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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Tuesday, 12 January 10
COAL PRICE FORECAST RAISED AT ANZ ON STRONGER CHINESE DEMAND
Power-station coal price forecasts for this year were raised 19 percent by Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. on rising demand from Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 January 10
BUMIS SALE CONTRACT ONLY REACHED 35 PERCENT
PT Bumi Resources has only completed 35 percent if its coal sale contract this year. “More than 65 percent of our sale volume did not have a c ...
Monday, 11 January 10
THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE STEADY - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com (Singapore): The freight market for the first week of the year was quite active and the market especially in the Panamax and Supramax s ...
Monday, 11 January 10
CHINAS COAL EXPORT MAY DECLINE 50% IN 2009
Preliminary data released by China's General Administration of Customs (GAC) on Wednesday showed that China's coal export reached 2.05 million ton ...
Saturday, 09 January 10
THE FAR EAST MARKET STARTED TO STABILIZE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The FEAST market started to stabilize after the quite holidays and we saw growing activity fed by Chinese coal and iron ore imports and Indi ...
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Showing 6101 to 6105 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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