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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Saturday, 09 January 10
IMPORTED, LOCAL COAL TO BE MIXED IN POWER DRIVE
The government is likely to create a pool price of coal, wherein imported coal and Indian coal could be mixed, making the imported coal becomes more ...
Friday, 08 January 10
SA COAL PRICES TO SPIKE ON RESUMED INDIA BUYING
South African coal prices are set for another price surge to over $100 a ton FOB as Indian and Chinese buyers compete for limited prompt supply, pro ...
Friday, 08 January 10
COLOMBIAN COAL STARTS TO MOVE TO CHINA - TRADERS
* Producer sells cape cargo Colombian coal to China
* Firm bids in freight market
* More shipments expected
Colombian coal is starting to move ...
Thursday, 07 January 10
PT. BUKIT ASAM TO BUILD NEW COAL LOADING TERMINAL AND COAL LOADER
COALspot.com (Indonesia): PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk, Indonesia’s state owned coal mining company, is planning to build an additi ...
Thursday, 07 January 10
RAMKY PLANS COAL MINING IN INDONESIA
Ramky Infrastructure Limited, a Hyderabad-based integrated infrastructure construction and development management company with strategic emphasis on ...
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Showing 6106 to 6110 news of total 6871 |
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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