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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Thursday, 01 April 10
OWNERS WERE STILL BULLISH ON SHORT PERIOD NUMBERS, BUT CHARTERERS IN GENERAL WERE NOT READY TO PAY - BRS
SUPRA / HANDY
After several weeks of a rising market, the BSI lost 9% last week to close on Friday at US$ 27,677 per day for the TC routes. ...
Thursday, 01 April 10
PROFIT AT TWO INDONESIAN COAL MINERS SOARS AS RECOVERY STIRS GREATER DEMAND, HIGHER PRICES - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Two of the country’s biggest coal producers enjoyed a surge in profit last year as prices rose and demand pic ...
Thursday, 01 April 10
BHP BILLITON TO SELL STAKE IN MARUWAI TO ADARO - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Posted reported that, BHP Billiton has agreed to sell 25 percent of its stake in the Maruwai Coal Project in Kalimantan to Indonesia&rsq ...
Thursday, 01 April 10
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCER REJECTS $3 BILLION PEABODY OFFER - STL TODAY
STL today reported that, Australian coal producer Macarthur Coal Ltd. rejected a $3 billion cash takeover bid from Peabody Energy Corp., which seeks ...
Thursday, 01 April 10
TATA POWER EYES MORE COAL FROM INDONESIA FOR ITS FUTURE PLANTS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Financial Expressreported that, Tata Power, one of the largest private sector power utilities in the country with interests in generation, transmiss ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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