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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Wednesday, 31 March 10
COAL INDIA MULLS JOINT VENTURE WITH RIO TINTO AND PEABODY - DNA
DNA reported that, Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has finalised two key contenders for its international joint venture (JV) in Australian and US each. The co ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
DRY BULK MARKET STILL MODERATELY FALLING, BUT POSITIVE SIGNS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The irregularities of the current dry bulk market have been more than evident in the fact that panamax vessels today earn more than their larger cap ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
INDIKA ENERGYS PROFIT HIT BY FOREX LOSS AND CABOTAGE - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reportd that, PT Indika Energy posted a 30 percent drop in 2009 net profit due to a foreign exchange loss and impairment of intang ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
ITMG TO UP COAL OUTPUT DESPITE PERMIT PROBLEMS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the country’s third largest coal producer PT Indo Tambang Raya Megah (ITMG) said it can raise output although ...
Tuesday, 30 March 10
ANALYST SEES BDI LIFT, SUGGESTS DRY BULK SHORT SQUEEZE
Analysts at Credit Suisse are bullish on Diana and see a potential short squeeze elsewhere in the sector. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -- an industry ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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